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Risk Management with Primavera Risk
A 15-hour applied programme in schedule and cost risk analysis using Primavera Risk Analysis — built for planners, risk managers, and project controls professionals delivering EPC and infrastructure p...
Risk Management with Primavera Risk
This course includes:
- 05h 36m 40s
- 27 Lectures
- 1 Downloadable resources
- Certificate of completion
Instructor
Eng. Abdalla Yousif
Overview
A 15-hour applied programme in schedule and cost risk analysis using Primavera Risk Analysis — built for planners, risk managers, and project controls professionals delivering EPC and infrastructure programmes across Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar.
Description
Programme Highlights
15-Hour Applied Programme
A complete Primavera Risk Analysis workflow — from baseline schedule build to Monte Carlo simulation output — structured for project controls professionals working on live EPC and infrastructure contracts.
Primavera P6 & Risk Analysis Integration
Import and build baseline schedules directly within Primavera Risk Analysis, preserving the activity logic and calendars used on major project schedules across Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar.
Monte Carlo & Quantitative Risk Analysis
Build risk-impacted plans, run Monte Carlo simulation, and generate probabilistic completion dates and cash flow — the quantitative rigor demanded on major GCC capital projects.
AI-Assisted Risk Registers
Apply AI tools to accelerate risk identification and initial register drafting, while maintaining the reviewer governance that Charter Center's project controls curriculum requires.
Course Curriculum — 7 Modules
Primavera Risk Analysis — Installation, Licensing & Interface Overview
This module opens the programme with the practical setup of Primavera Risk Analysis (formerly Oracle Primavera Risk Analysis) — installation requirements, licensing configuration, and integration settings that allow the platform to import Primavera P6 and Microsoft Project baselines directly. Participants are guided through the main screen environment: the Gantt-style plan view, the risk register pane, the distribution graph panel, and the ribbon commands that control calculation, simulation, and reporting. The module positions Primavera Risk Analysis within the wider project controls toolchain used by EPC contractors, PMC consultants, and owner project management offices across Saudi Aramco, ADNOC, and QatarEnergy capital programmes, where quantitative schedule and cost risk submissions are a standard stage-gate deliverable. Interface orientation is treated as a practical foundation rather than a software tour: participants leave the module able to navigate confidently between plan, risk, and analysis views, and understand where each subsequent stage of the risk workflow — from theoretical grounding through Monte Carlo simulation — sits within the platform.
Risk Management Foundations & the Logic of Quantified Exposure
This module establishes the theoretical grounding that underpins every technical step that follows. Participants examine what constitutes a project risk — as distinct from an issue or a known cost — and the difference between threats and opportunities within a balanced risk register. The risk management process cycle is covered in depth: identification, qualitative assessment, quantification, response planning, and ongoing monitoring, aligned to ISO 31000 risk management principles and the PMI Project Risk Management framework referenced across GCC project controls departments. Particular attention is given to how risk is quantified — translating a narrative risk statement into a probability range and an impact range that can be modelled mathematically — the conceptual bridge between qualitative judgement and the Monte Carlo simulation covered later in the programme. GCC context is woven throughout: how Saudi Aramco's CVP stage-gate process, ADNOC's risk management framework, QatarEnergy's megaproject governance structure, and NEOM's giga-project risk offices each require a quantified risk exposure statement before capital release approval, making this foundational competency a prerequisite for meaningful participation in Gulf project controls teams.
Building the Baseline Schedule — Activities, Calendars & Resource Loading
A risk analysis is only as credible as the schedule it is built upon, and this module covers the complete process of constructing that foundation in Primavera Risk Analysis. Participants create a new plan, add activities, and build logical sequencing relationships that reflect real construction and engineering workflows. Calendar configuration is covered in practical detail — including the GCC working week, national holiday patterns, and Ramadan working-hour adjustments that must be reflected accurately for schedule outputs to be credible on Saudi, UAE, and Qatari projects. Participants run the schedule calculation to establish a valid critical path, then define and assign resources to activities, connecting resource loading to the cost dimension that later feeds probabilistic cash flow analysis. Where a baseline already exists in Primavera P6, the module covers importing that XER baseline directly into Primavera Risk Analysis — preserving activity IDs, WBS structure, and logic ties — so that risk analysis is performed on the same schedule submitted for contractual reporting, rather than a rebuilt approximation.
Risk Analysis Techniques — Distributions, Quick Risk & Tornado Sensitivity
This module introduces the core statistical toolkit of schedule risk analysis. Participants apply probability distributions — triangular, normal, uniform, and BetaPert — to activity durations, using three-point estimating (optimistic, most likely, pessimistic) to capture uncertainty ranges that reflect real field conditions on EPC and infrastructure work. The Quick Risk feature is covered as an efficient method for applying uncertainty ranges rapidly across large numbers of activities, appropriate for early-stage or portfolio-level risk screening before detailed risk register development. Tornado diagrams are introduced as the primary sensitivity analysis tool — ranking activities and risks by their impact on overall project completion, allowing project controls teams to focus mitigation effort on the small number of activities that drive the majority of schedule uncertainty. Participants learn to interpret risk analysis outputs correctly: reading probability distribution histograms of project completion date, understanding P50, P80, and P90 confidence levels, and translating these outputs into defensible contingency and float recommendations for EPC contract negotiations and PMC monthly reporting across Gulf megaprojects.
Qualitative Risk Analysis — Risk Breakdown Structure, Register & Response Planning
This module shifts from statistical technique to structured risk documentation. Participants build a Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS) — organising identified risks into categories such as technical, contractual, market, environmental, and stakeholder risk — the classification framework that governments and owner organisations across the GCC expect in formal risk submissions. Risks are scored on a probability-impact matrix, producing a heat map that separates high-priority exposures requiring immediate mitigation from lower-priority risks suitable for monitoring only. The module covers professional risk register construction in full: risk owner assignment, trigger conditions, current status, residual risk scoring after mitigation, and review cadence. Response strategy design is addressed for each risk category — avoid, mitigate, transfer, and accept — with participants documenting mitigation plans that specify concrete actions, responsible parties, and target dates. Register formats are aligned to the structures expected by MOMRA, Qatar PWA, and UAE RTA programme oversight bodies, so that participants produce documentation suitable for direct submission on live GCC infrastructure and EPC contracts, not a generic academic exercise.
Quantitative Risk Analysis — Impacted Plans, Monte Carlo Simulation & Probabilistic Cash Flow
This module brings the qualitative risk register and the quantified schedule together in a single working model. Participants build the risk-impacted plan by linking specific register entries to the activities they affect, defining how each risk alters activity duration, cost, or logic if it occurs. Monte Carlo simulation is then run across thousands of iterations, and the module covers configuring iteration count, correlation between related risks, and convergence checking to ensure statistically reliable output. Participants learn to read the resulting S-curve and probability distribution of project completion — translating raw simulation output into the P50, P80, and P90 completion dates used for schedule contingency decisions on major capital programmes. The module concludes with probabilistic cash flow analysis, extending the simulation from schedule risk into cost risk — producing a probabilistic spend curve that supports contingency and management reserve calculations. This Integrated Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis (ICRA) approach mirrors the practice used by project controls departments on Saudi Aramco, ADNOC, and QatarEnergy capital projects, where combined cost-schedule risk models increasingly replace single-point contingency estimates in stage-gate approvals.
AI-Enabled Risk Management & Automated Risk Register Development
The closing module addresses one of the fastest-moving developments in project controls practice: applying AI tools to accelerate the risk management workflow covered throughout the programme. Participants learn to use AI assistants to draft an initial risk register from source material — historical project data, lessons-learned libraries, contract documentation, and site condition reports — automatically categorising drafted risks against the RBS structure built in Module 05 and proposing initial probability and impact ranges for review. The module positions AI as an acceleration tool for risk workshop preparation and register drafting, not a replacement for professional judgement: every AI-generated risk entry is treated as a draft requiring human verification, contextual adjustment, and formal sign-off before entering the contractual risk register. Governance considerations are addressed directly — data sensitivity when using AI tools on confidential project information, the review and approval controls that Saudi Aramco, ADNOC, and QatarEnergy project controls departments require before AI-assisted content is submitted, and the documentation trail needed to demonstrate that AI-drafted risk entries received appropriate professional review.
Software, Standards & Accreditation
Course Outcome
On completing this course, you will be able to build a risk-impacted schedule in Primavera Risk Analysis, run Monte Carlo simulation to generate P50, P80, and P90 completion dates, structure a professional risk register with a defensible probability-impact matrix and mitigation plans, and apply AI-assisted tools to accelerate risk register development under appropriate governance — skills directly applicable to project controls, risk management, and planning engineer roles on Saudi Aramco, ADNOC, and QatarEnergy capital programmes and Vision 2030 infrastructure initiatives across the GCC.